Poll Watching

POLL WATCHING….There are a few new poll results out today, which provides an opportunity to put my handy dandy poll watcher’s chart into practice:

  • In Pennsylvania, a Keystone Poll shows Kerry ahead 48%-42% with an MOE of 4%. That means there’s a 94% chance that Kerry is truly ahead. (Conversely, there’s a 6% chance that Kerry’s lead is due to sampling error and it’s actually Bush who’s ahead.)

  • In Ohio, Gallup finds Kerry ahead among likely voters 48%-46% with an MOE of 4%. That means there’s a 69% chance that Kerry is ahead. (Kerry’s lead is down from Gallup’s July poll. The Swift Vets smear seems to be working.)

  • In Missouri, SurveyUSA says Bush is ahead 48%-47% with an MOE of 4%. That means there’s a 60% chance that Bush is currently ahead.

The Ohio and Missouri results are obviously pretty weak, but they’re still results. You can decide for yourself whether the probabilities are high enough to take seriously.

UPDATE: Oops, got the Bush/Kerry results reversed in Missouri. Freudian slip. All fixed now. Thanks to Al in comments for pointing this out. (And that’s probably the last time I’m ever going to say that….)