Electoral Prediction

ELECTORAL PREDICTION…I guess it’s time to put up or shut up. A few days ago I mentioned that I thought John Kerry would win 272 electoral votes, and here’s how I think they’re going to split. Florida will end up breaking for Bush ? one way or another ? but Ohio and Pennsylvania will vote for Kerry. Colorado and Iowa will end up being Bush country, but New Hampshire and ? crucially ? Wisconsin will give their electoral votes to Kerry.

On the other hand, it’s also possible that the battlegrounds will almost all break for Kerry by a couple of points or so, in which case Kerry would end up with more than 300 electoral votes. It’s awfully hard to see the reverse happening, though.

If Kerry does end up taking all the battleground states, unprecedented cooperation among the political left is likely to be a big part of the reason. Harold Meyerson explains here.