THE SURGE….Is the surge working? That is, even if you ignore the lack of political progress, are we even making tactical progress? Since violence in Iraq tends to be seasonal, the only reasonable comparison is one between summer 2006 and summer 2007, so I went to the latest Brookings Iraq Index to check out the most recent numbers.
No figures are available for August, and the surge wasn’t completely up and running until June, so the best comparison is between June/July 2006 and June/July 2007. I’m not pretending this is conclusive or anything, but the news sure doesn’t look very good. The two tables below tell the story.
Violence Metrics
|
|
June/July |
June/July |
|
|
Iraqi Military and Police Killed |
349 |
429 |
Up 23% |
|
Multiple Fatality Bombings |
110 |
82 |
Down 25% |
|
# Killed in Mult. Fatality Bombings |
885 |
1,053 |
Up 19% |
|
Iraqi Civilians Killed |
6,739 |
5,300 |
Hard to say1 |
|
U.S. Troop Fatalities |
104 |
187 |
Up 80% |
|
U.S. Troops Wounded |
983 |
1,423 |
Up 45% |
|
Size of Insurgency |
20,000+ |
~70,0002 |
Up ~250% |
|
Attacks on Oil and Gas Pipelines |
8 |
143 |
Up 75% |
1Methodology changed dramatically between 2006 and 2007, so numbers are highly suspect.
2Number is for March 2007.
3Numbers are for June only. No July numbers are available.
Infrastructure Metrics
|
|
June/July |
June/July |
|
|
Diesel Fuel Available |
26.7 Ml |
20.7 Ml |
Down 22% |
|
Kerosene Available |
7.08 Ml |
6.3 Ml |
Down 11% |
|
Gasoline Available |
29.4 Ml |
22.2 Ml |
Down 24% |
|
LPG Available |
4,936 tons |
4,932 tons |
Down 0.1% |
|
Electricity Generated |
8,800 Mwatts |
8,420 Mwatts |
Down 4% |
|
Hours Electricity Per Day |
11.7 |
10.14 |
Down ~14% |
4No numbers available for June/July. Figure is extrapolated from May and August numbers.
