Wave Election

by dday

WAVE ELECTION… Democracy Corps released their latest poll of Republican-held areas, and the news is very good for Democrats:

Analysis: Democrats Improve Advantage in 45 Republican-Held Districts

Even as we modified our sample design to include more hard-to-reach Republican-held districts, Democrats have significantly expanded their lead in this totally Republican battleground that Bush won by 12 points in 2004 and Republican members won by the same margin in 2006. You have to remind yourself that this is not a national poll but a poll in Republican-held seats where Democrats have moved to a 7-point lead (50 to 43 percent). Further, Republican incumbents have a very weak standing to be reelected while Democratic challengers enjoy a larger pool of winnable voters to approach in this election, win the issue debates and prove to be resilient to the most vicious Republican attacks. The underlying dynamics of the race show that the battleground could expand even further into Republican territory as more voters are open to vote Democratic in November.

Inside the numbers, we see that the strength for Democrats is in suburban and exurban districts, which is a real change from 2004, when George Bush took almost all of the fastest-growing districts in the country. The incumbent job approval in these 45 districts is down to 38%, which is significant because usually the situation is that people hate Congress but like their own representative. The analysis is pretty amazing.

The general election is going to be a mish-mash of identity politics and dishonest smears and 527 ads and the time-honored questioning of patriotism. At the district level, it’s more typically a battle of party identification. And nobody wants anything to do with Republicans anymore.