Historic Moment For Rasmussen

So something unprecedented in public opinion research happened today: Rasmussen put out a poll showing a statewide Democratic candidate opening up a sudden, huge lead over a Republican candidate, and there were undoubtedly cheers across the entire elite GOP/conservative universe.

Yes, Raz has Claire McCaskill up by a 48-38 margin over Todd Akin, with Akin’s favorable/unfavorable rating coming in at 35/63, and nearly half viewing him “very unfavorably.” On the question of whether Todd should stay or go, 41% say “stay” and 42% say “go,” but in the brief analysis it’s made reasonably clear (without breakdowns) that most saying “stay” are Democrats.

Whether this will have an immediate impact on Akin’s thinking about his candidacy is anybody’s guess, but I doubt he’ll be able to keep citing that snap poll from PPP released Monday night that showed him still up by a point over McCaskill.

Given the very well-documented pro-GOP “house effect” of Rasmussen polls, some will wonder if ol’ Scott put a thumb on the scales for Claire. I don’t think so: best I can tell Rasmussen’s bias comes from his sampling techniques and perhaps a bit from his likely voter screens, so he is probably legitimately finding that many MO Republicans ain’t much on Todd’s bandwagon any more, as you might expect at this point. One of Akin’s problems is that he hadn’t really had time to consolidate GOP support after a tough primary before he blew himself up, so those still strongly with him in Missouri are probably those who were with him from the beginning.

Ed Kilgore

Ed Kilgore, a Monthly contributing editor, is a columnist for the Daily Intelligencer, New York magazine’s politics blog, and the managing editor for the Democratic Strategist.