Pew’s Perfect Post-Debate Window

If you haven’t heard about this yet, you will soon, probably from some of the same gabbers who were complaining just last week that the polls were all biased for Obama: the new monthly Pew survey has Mitt Romney with a four-point lead (49-45) among LVs. Pew had Obama up by eight (51-43) among LVs in mid-September. Among the rather startling numbers is Romney completely eliminating an 18-point disadvantage among women, and an even larger swing among voters under 50 (from down 15 to up 4).

Oddly, the candidate preferences for the big party ID groupings haven’t changed that much, and sure enough, the RV sample (aside from being half the size of September’s) has a significantly higher percentage of Republicans (34%) than September’s (31%), and an even larger reduction in the percentage of Democrats (37% to 31%) This could reflect a sampling error in either month or an actual shift in party ID.

The main silver lining for Ds in this poll is that it was taken precisely during the first four days after the first presidential debate. So it created a perfect window for the Romney debate bounce but not the reversion towards the mean that other surveys seem to be reflecting.

But make no mistake, this is the true, infallible poll Republicans have been waiting on to declare total impending victory. I just hope we don’t get any disgusting spin suggesting that women saw Romney as a Real Man, even without his skinny jeans.

Ed Kilgore

Ed Kilgore is a contributing writer to the Washington Monthly. He is managing editor for The Democratic Strategist and a senior fellow at the Progressive Policy Institute. Find him on Twitter: @ed_kilgore.