PREDICTIONS….Here are my war predictions:

by Kevin Drum
Politics

PREDICTIONS….Here are my war predictions:

  • How long will the war last? Answer: 6 weeks.

  • How many American deaths will there be? Answer: 700.

  • How big will the occupation force be by the end of the year? Answer: 80,000 troops.

  • How long will the military occupation last: Answer: 3 years.

  • How much will the war cost this year? Answer: $110 billion.

  • How much will it cost next year? Answer: $25 billion.

  • How much actual democracy will we bring to Iraq? Answer: 4%.

All answers are plus or minus a factor of two.

UPDATE: On the other hand, if we decide to loiter around Baghdad waiting for the 4th Infantry Division, that could put a crimp into the schedule, couldn’t it?

Then again, if Saddam does indeed flee to Syria, that could speed things up. So it all evens out.

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Kevin Drum