THE CASE FOR OPTIMISM….Max Boot explains today why he thinks the Iraqi insurgency is doomed:

The rebels lack a unifying organization, ideology and leader. There is no Iraqi Ho Chi Minh, Fidel Castro or Mao Tse-tung….Support for the insurgency is confined to a minority within a minority ? a small portion of Sunni Arabs, who make up less than 20% of the population.

….Unlike in successful guerrilla wars, the rebels in Iraq have not been able to control large chunks of “liberated” territory….The biggest weakness of the insurgency is that it is morphing from a war of national liberation into a revolutionary struggle against an elected government.

Read the whole thing to get a better sense of his whole argument. I can’t say I’m convinced, but it’s about the best 700-word version of the optimistic case that I’ve seen.

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