2006 in Iraq

2006 IN IRAQ….In a short piece about Nancy Pelosi’s call for withdrawal from Iraq, ?ber-neocon hawk Bill Kristol throws out this aside:

It is possible that the situation in Iraq will worsen over the next year….But it is much more likely that the situation in Iraq will stay more or less the same, or improve.

Perhaps I’m reading too much into this, but that tacked on “or improve” sure doesn’t sound very convincing, does it? It looks to me like even the hawkish Kristol can’t persuade himself that the most likely scenario is any better than “stay more or less the same.” Is it any surprise that those of us who aren’t monomaniacs to begin with are somewhat less optimistic?