Another Sign of Continuity

The monthly Pew survey on the presidential contest released yesterday provides some simple and useful data on an underlying reality that is easy to forget in all the trauma of the last three years and all the talk about “the electorate” or “the people” deciding this or that about Barack Obama or his opponents: voters are currently breaking down pretty much as they did in 2008.

In the context of a contest in which Obama is shown as leading Romney by four points (among registered voters), as compared with his seven-point win over John McCain, here are the changes in Obama’s margin from 2008 among basic demographic groups: Men: -5; Women: Even; 18-29: -6; 30-44: -2; 45-64: Even; Over 65: +2; White: -3; Black: +2; Hispanic: +4; >100k: +4; 50-100k: Even;

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Ed Kilgore

Ed Kilgore, a Monthly contributing editor, is a columnist for the Daily Intelligencer, New York magazine’s politics blog, and the managing editor for the Democratic Strategist.