Whether or not the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee’s unprecedented investment in data-and-volunteer-driven GOTV this year works out (and it may be hard to tell if it has, given the terrible Senate landscape it confronts), the Donkey Party should be in a good position to take advantage of a much more positive turnout environment in 2016.

But how about the GOP? Republicans have a lot of reasons for convincing themselves that today’s relatively benign political trends are part of something a lot bigger, just like they did after their 2010 landslide. The potential error of that sunny short-term optimism is the subject of my weekly column over at TPMCafe.

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Ed Kilgore is a political columnist for New York and managing editor at the Democratic Strategist website. He was a contributing writer at the Washington Monthly from January 2012 until November 2015, and was the principal contributor to the Political Animal blog.