Want to hear a fascinating statistical insight? Nate Cohn of The Upshot‘s sure got one today:
Republicans would probably hold the House — and still have a real chance to retake the Senate — if they lost every single Hispanic voter in the country, according to an analysis by The Upshot.
Every single Hispanic voter? That’s right.
The Upshot analysis found that if not one of the eight million Hispanic voters supported the Republican candidate, Republicans would lose about a dozen House seats, especially in Florida and California. The loss of those seats would make the Republican House majority more vulnerable if Democrats made gains elsewhere in future years. But given the Republicans’ current strength across rural areas and in conservative suburbs, the loss of every Hispanic voter would not be enough to cost them the 17 seats that would flip House control.
Conversely, winning every Hispanic vote would almost certainly give Democrats another national House popular vote plurality, but would mainly just drive up their percentage in districts they already control.
The Senate’s another matter, of course. Not only would losing every Hispanic voter matter a lot in Colorado and could perhaps be decisive in several other states if the results are very close, but it could also make life difficult for an incumbent who’s now coasting to re-election: John Cornyn of Texas.
In any event, Cohn’s analysis makes it a lot easier to understand why House Republicans shrug at the party analysts telling them the GOP is toast if it continues to actively antagonize the fastest growing segment of the electorate. It’s not their problem, personally. And their own districts make it a lot easier to take the lead of Steve King and Michele Bachmann on what to do with those pesky brown people and proudly stand up as the White Man’s Party.