The Wave Resists Appearing, For Now

Looking at today’s polls, it’s obvious that in some of the races where a couple of surveys have convinced observers the long-awaited GOP wave is appearing, respondents in new polls aren’t entirely obeying the zeitgeist.

We’ve been told Mark Udall is toast, but there he is within the MoE in a new Reuters/Ipsos survey. Joni Ernst has supposedly had the whip hand over Bruce Braley for close to a month now, but there the two candidates are, within the MoE again in a new Quinnipiac survey. Jeanne Shaheen is holding onto a lead, however small, over Scott Brown in two new polls from NH. Insider Advantage makes it three polls in a row showing Michelle Nunn with a lead over David Perdue. And perhaps most surprising, given all the talk about Pat Roberts’ “rescue” by the national GOP, a fresh Rasmussen poll has Greg Orman leading the incumbent by five points (49/44).

Maybe the wave is just over the horizon. But it will probably have to become visible before there’s any big reason to believe it.

Ed Kilgore

Ed Kilgore, a Monthly contributing editor, is a columnist for the Daily Intelligencer, New York magazine’s politics blog, and the managing editor for the Democratic Strategist.