Here’s some useful number-crunching from NBC’s First Read:
In the new MSNBC/Telemundo poll, which contained a Latino oversample, Democrats enjoy a 31-point advantage in party ID among Latinos, 47%-16%, with 36% identifying themselves as independents. That’s compared with Democrats having 7-point advantage among all voters in the poll. But get this: Political ideology among Latinos is almost identical to all voters.
Latinos: 27% liberal, 39% moderate, 35% conservative
All voters: 29% liberal, 35% moderate, 36% conservative
In other words, there are PLENTY of conservative Latinos. They’re just not willing to identify themselves as Republicans. Here’s another way to look at this, according to the Marist pollsters who conducted the poll:
Among all national adults who identify themselves as conservative: 50% are Republicans, 31% are independent, and 17% are Democrats
Among Latinos who identify themselves as conservative: just 23% are Republicans, 49% are independent, and 26% are Democrats.
Bottom line: This is a brand problem for Republicans. This is why so many Republicans believe that the minute you get immigration out of the way, the GOP might be able to win over more Latinos. The problem: Immigration isn’t going away.
And this is why Republicans are so interested in discounting the Latino vote in presidential elections (you know, they’re mostly in non-competitive states like CA and TX; they vote at low levels, etc. etc.). They’ve really trapped themselves with this rapidly growing demographic, and really have no strategy for getting out other than secretly hoping immigration issues will get taken care of without their involvement.