Jonathan Bernstein

Democrats Aren’t Deniers on Polls

No, Democrats aren’t venturing into the kind of polling denialism that turned “unskewed” Republicans into a joke two years ago. That, you remember, led Karl Rove and other party strategists to dismiss unfavorable opinion surveys as politically biased against them. The Hill’s Niall Stanage tried to make the case this morning that 2014 Democrats are… Read more »

When Political Gaffes Matter

Ed Kilgore has a nice item about the Georgia Senate race: In the endless argument between political scientists and “traditional” political people about how elections are decided, I’m with the Poli Sci crowd more often than not, and don’t much believe individual “moments” in campaigns usually matter all that much. But there are obviously exceptions;… Read more »

To Know ObamaCare is to Love It

A Gallup poll released today confirms what anyone paying attention knows: The Affordable Care Act’s successes aren’t changing negative views on “Obamacare,” including what people report about their personal experiences with health care. Yet the very characteristics that make Obamacare unpopular make the ACA safe from repeal. The design of the law almost ensured a… Read more »

Republicans Can Afford a Nomination Brawl

Republicans are worried that their enormous field of 2016 presidential nomination candidates will be a problem, according to a good article from Maggie Haberman and Jake Sherman in Politico: The message from Republican officials has been crystal clear for two years: The 2016 Republican primary cannot be another prolonged pummeling of the eventual nominee. Only… Read more »

Stop Wasting Your Campaign Dollars

At The Upshot, Lynn Vavreck reviews new evidence supporting the old but important finding that a dollar given to challengers is worth more than a dollar for incumbents. It’s a story of diminishing returns. Even partisans hesitate to back a candidate they’ve never heard of, so candidate spending to establish name recognition is effective. Moreover,… Read more »