Jonathan Bernstein

Senate Battleground: The Trouble With This Year’s Polls

Will polling prove accurate in 2014? None of the high-tech, number-crunching forecast models seeking to determine which party will win a Senate majority will be useful if the raw material — individual polls — are wrong. But that could be the case this year, as Carl Bialik reported in an important piece today. Many people… Read more »

Fear, Loathing and Fun in Midterm Elections

Quick thoughts on some midterm developments: 1. Former Republican Senator Larry Pressler, running for Senate as an independent in South Dakota, seems to be a live candidate (albeit a Bateson class candidate). That has sparked discussion of what would happen if the Democratic candidate dropped out, as the Democrat did in Kansas. Pressler, however, would… Read more »

Lindsey Graham’s Dubious Presidential Campaign

Wait — Lindsey Graham? Really? Thus far, the story of the 2016 Republican presidential field is that everyone who seems interested in running already is — yielding a dozen or so active candidates even without counting marginal attention-seekers such as Dr. Ben Carson or Representative Michele Bachmann. Today, however, for the first time in a… Read more »

Five Undercovered Midterm Stories

It’s terrific that we have six polling aggregators and forecasting models, each giving us rapidly updated odds for every Senate seat. It’s nice to have the chances of a Republican majority in the next Senate (continued aggregation-of-aggregation odds: toss-up, very slight edge to Republicans). But as many have noted, things aren’t going to change much… Read more »

Catch of the Day: Eric Cantor’s Companions in Defeat

A Catch to Aaron Blake at the Fix for his quick write-up of the four House incumbents who managed to lose primaries this year. As Blake points out, yesterday’s defeat of scandal-plagued Massachusetts Democrat John Tierney belongs with the thoroughly predictable and understandable losses of an accidental Michigan Republican, Kerry Bentivolio, and an aged Texas… Read more »