Jonathan Bernstein

Question Day: Is It Too Late to Enter the Presidential Race?

Commenter “Davis X. Machina” asks: “What’s the absolute latest a candidate can realistically get into a presidential race? Not ballot-deadlines-latest, but real-world.” Great question. During the last cycle, numerous pundits talked up a late entry in the Republican nomination contest well into fall 2007, when it was clearly too late. So what’s the real answer?… Read more »

Candidate Book Sales Are for Suckers

Dave Weigel, who is an excellent reporter and (I’m pretty sure) just having some fun here, noted that potential Republican presidential candidate Ben Carson has outsold Hillary Clinton in the campaign book sweepstakes. Weigel also supplied book sales results from other politicians and authors for context. My advice: Ignore those book sales numbers! Dismiss them,… Read more »

HAHAHAHA: I Like the Ames Straw Poll

Ed Kilgore notes today that the infamous Ames straw poll is less than a year away, at least if it actually takes place. There’s some talk about canceling it. For those who don’t pay close attention to Republican presidential nomination politics, the much-ridiculed Ames event works like this: Anyone with a ticket can vote in… Read more »

Watergate Exposed the Emptiness of Spin

One more lesson of Watergate: Spin is futile. Events are decisive. A persistent myth of the scandal is that journalists were the heroes. The movie version of that story, “All the President’s Men,” is perhaps still for many people the entryway to learning about that period. (It’s a good movie. “Dick” is better). In reality,… Read more »

How to Target Nonexistent Fraud

At the Monkey Cage today, Justin Levitt has a nice summary of the evidence — or better, the nonevidence — on voter impersonation fraud. The headline is that he has found all of 31 credible episodes since 2000. Some are proven, some aren’t, but that’s 31 out of, he says, about 1 billion votes cast… Read more »