RED STATES AND BLUE STATES….EXPLAINED!….In my post yesterday about red states and blue states, one question I pondered was this: why were Gore states colored blue in 2000 election maps and Bush states red? After all, red is traditionally the color of lefty parties around the world, and in past elections network maps had usually colored Democratic states red.
In comments, Petey provides the answer:
Since the advent of color TV, there has been a formula to avoid charges of giving any party an advantage by painting it a “better” color. Here is the formula: the color of the incumbent party alternates every 4 years.
He seems to be quite correct. The table below shows how this formula has applied since 1976:
YearIncumbent
PartyIncumbent
ColorChallenger
Color1976
Republican
Blue = Ford
Red = Carter
1980
Democratic
Red = Carter
Blue = Reagan
1984
Republican
Blue = Reagan
Red = Mondale
1988
Republican
Red = Bush
Blue = Dukakis
1992
Republican
Blue = Bush
Red = Clinton
1996
Democratic
Red = Clinton
Blue = Dole
2000
Democratic
Blue = Gore
Red = Bush
2004
Republican
Red = Bush
Blue = Kerry
This fits all the available evidence, and also explains why Democrats have usually been colored red: it’s a coincidence. In the six elections prior to 2000 every Democrat but one had been coded red, but that was just because of how the cycle of incumbency happened to work out during that period.
And as Petey points out in email, this raises an interesting question: what will happen in 2008? The formula will assign blue to the Republicans, but the red state/blue state divide has now become so entrenched it’s hard to imagine anyone switching colors at this point. I guess in four years we’ll find out just how anal the network mapping gurus really are.
POSTSCRIPT: If anyone has firsthand knowledge ? or knows someone with firsthand knowledge ? about when this formula was agreed on and how it came about, please email me. It would be interesting to nail this down once and for all.