THE ODDS OF WAR….John Quiggin also has a pretty good post summarizing the prospects for war with Iraq. Basically, he thinks the odds are 50-50 that Britain will have to pull out, and the odds are only 50-50 that Bush will continue without them. Thus, instead of the 98% chance that Slate estimates, he figures the odds of invasion at around 75%.
I’m not quite sure I agree with either of those assessments ? I suspect Blair might be willing to risk his job over this, and I also suspect that Bush will go ahead regardless ? but John makes a good case that’s worth thinking about, and I think he has correctly tagged the two most important variables. War may not be quite as inevitable as most Americans think.
