POLLS, POLLS, POLLS….On Monday, the American Research Group released a very surprising new poll out of Iowa, which has caused quite a stir when it showed Hillary Clinton with a 14-point lead over her closest Democratic competitors in Iowa.

An outlier? Probably. New results from the LAT show a far more competitive race.

In New Hampshire, Obama has 32% of Dem primary voters to Hillary’s 30%, while Edwards trails with 18% — a big swing from September, when Obama was losing to Hillary, 35%-16%.

Meanwhile, in Iowa, Hillary is edging Obama, 29%-26%, while Edwards has 25%, a statistical dead heat.

Of course, as Pollster.com’s Mark Blumenthal explained, any poll conducted over the holiday season is bound to be problematic.

Caveat emptor.

Steve Benen

Follow Steve on Twitter @stevebenen. Steve Benen is a producer at MSNBC's The Rachel Maddow Show. He was the principal contributor to the Washington Monthly's Political Animal blog from August 2008 until January 2012.