McCAIN’S BASE PROBLEM….I’m not saying anything here that we don’t already know, but the Florida exit polls confirm that John McCain has a big problem. As expected, he does well among independents and moderates, but also as expected, he does less well among Republicans and conservatives. Sure, they’ll mostly come around in November, but mostly isn’t enough. He needs 105% of the conservative base, not 95%. Remember that Karl Rove famously had to turn out four million extra conservative evangelicals just to eke out a bare win against John Kerry in 2004.

Does anyone seriously think that any Republican candidate can kick such major ass among independents in November that he can afford a conservative base that’s not charged up and working feverishly to turn out every last vote? I don’t.

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