Arizona

ARIZONA…. It seems like a stretch. In fact, it seems almost silly. But to borrow Atrios’ phrase, there’s a certain entertainment factor in poll porn.

Democrats are circulating a poll showing Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) losing ground in his own state, an ominous sign for his beleaguered campaign as state after state turns blues.

Project New West, which aims to build the Democratic Party in the Intermountain West, says McCain leads Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) in the Grand Canyon State, 48 percent to 44 percent.

The pollsters call that a “dramatic shift” from a survey they took in mid-September, which had McCain ahead by 14 points, 54 percent to 40 percent.

“Bad News for McCain: Presidential Contest in Arizona has Closed in Arizona And McCain Now Leads By Just 4 Points,” says a memo from pollsters Andrew Myers of Myers Research and Strategic Services, and Lisa Grove of Grove Research.

To be sure, this poll, while eyebrow-raising, seems to be at odds with most of the available data out of Arizona. What’s more, while Obama is stretching the map pretty well, there’s no way in the world Arizonans are going to start seeing ads in their state this week.

But the New York Times notes that Arizona is trending “blue,” and while McCain is very likely to carry his home state, Democratic advances in Arizona are also likely, and the party is in position to gain “a majority of Arizona’s Congressional delegation — now with eight members — for the first time since 1966.”

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Steve Benen

Steve Benen is a producer at MSNBC's The Rachel Maddow Show. He was the principal contributor to the Washington Monthly's Political Animal blog from August 2008 until January 2012.