So the first flare into the sky in an upcoming week of big economic numbers came out this morning, with the Bureau of Economic Analysis setting its first estimate of 2d Quarter GDP growth at 1.5%. That’s down from 1.9% in the first quarter (though BEA actually raised that estimate to 2.0%, and significantly boosted the 4th Quarter 2011 estimate as well), but slightly above the consensus predictions. So it’s hard to say exactly how the markets or the chattering classes will react.

Later today will come a new estimate of consumer confidence, and then of course a week from today we’ll get the July Jobs Report, which, like all of these suckers, could have a big impact if it’s significantly better or worse than expected. New jobless claims were sharply down this week, but that indicator has been jumping around like a rabbit on amphetamines, so who knows what will happen next Friday?

Ed Kilgore

Ed Kilgore is a political columnist for New York and managing editor at the Democratic Strategist website. He was a contributing writer at the Washington Monthly from January 2012 until November 2015, and was the principal contributor to the Political Animal blog.