Here’s a reminder of just how tough it’ll be for Scott Brown to win tonight in Massachusetts. In the January 2010 special election that catapulted him to the Senate, a total of 164,312 ballots were cast in Boston. By noon today, according to the Boston Phoenix’s David Bernstein, 103,369 people had already voted in Beantown. In a high-turnout presidential election year, Democrats’ 3:1 advantage in voter registration (Roughly 1.5 million to 500k) is only going to be more pronounced.

Though Bay State Republicans often tout their credentials (or their state’s “independence”) by pointing to Mass’s habit of electing GOP governors, it should be noted that the state chooses its governors in off-election years. There’s no telling if William Weld (1990, 1994), Paul Cellucci (1998) and Mitt Romney (2002) would have been elected if presidential elections had been occuring. (The 2008 presidential election turned out about a million more voters than the 2010 gubernatorial race.) Scott Brown, who benefited from an off-year election held in January, is likely to become a victim of blue-state reality tonight. Warren has also been pulling away in the polls, as of late.

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Simon van Zuylen-Wood

Simon van Zuylen-Wood is a writer for Philadelphia Magazine.