Well, it had to start soon, given the general consensus among Democrats that even a sitting two-term vice president wouldn’t have a prayer of beating her in the primaries. So Mark Ambinder weighs in with the first serious post-election will-she-or-won’t-she piece about Hillary Clinton’s 2016 presidential aspirations. He begins with the most pertinent issue:

People who have spoken to Clinton about her future and, importantly, who have spoken with her husband, former President Bill Clinton, are not ready to bet on odds any greater than 50:50 that she decides to run. In fact, Clinton discourages speculation within her inner circle not by swearing them to omerta but by simply laughing off the possibility that she needs to make a decision anytime soon.

Since no one–say, Martin O’Malley or Andrew Cuomo–is about to start building a campaign until they have a clue about Clinton’s intentions, her “availability,” to use an archaic phrase, will likely freeze the field for longer than has been the case in quite a few years, says Ambinder.

If I had to bet, I’d bet that she decides to run, if only because she will feel that destiny and circumstance have put her in the right place at the right time. She may feel that she owes it to young women and those who supported her to finish the marathon of American politics.

This sort of speculation is interesting right now, but it will soon get very old. So work on your HillaryWatch BS filter, because real information is likely to be scarce for a good while.

Ed Kilgore

Ed Kilgore is a political columnist for New York and managing editor at the Democratic Strategist website. He was a contributing writer at the Washington Monthly from January 2012 until November 2015, and was the principal contributor to the Political Animal blog.