…Graham has been moving to the right over his career in in the Senate… I suspect this movement is especially pronounced in the current Senate (we don’t have the data yet) and will only accelerate in the coming 113th (see yesterday’s post simulating the Disability Treaty Vote for some more evidence)…the reality is that Graham has been carefully preparing for a conservative challenge in 2014.  He’s also reasonably popular state wide, even among conservatives.  So this is where my chips lie: Graham defeats a primary challenger and wins reelection in 2014.

That’s College of Charleston political scientist Jordan Ragusa.  More here, include a graph showing Graham’s shift to the right.

[Cross-posted at The Monkey Cage]

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John Sides is an associate professor of political science at George Washington University.