There have already been a lot of unexpected twists and turns in the 2016 presidential race, but maybe the single most surprising thing to me so far has been just how miserably Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker is doing. Take a look at the new NBC News/Marist poll out of New Hampshire. Since February, Walker’s support has been cut by three-quarters and he is now polling in ninth place, behind Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, and Carly Fiorina. Only 4% of Granite State voters express a first preference for Gov. Walker.

It looks like in New Hampshire, at least, it’s Ohio Governor John Kasich who is emerging as the alternative to Bush. He’s in second place with 12%, way behind Trump and narrowly better than Ben Carson and the Jebster.

The headlines are pointing to the result in the Democratic race, however.

Over there, we see Bernie Sanders leaping into an 11% lead over Hillary, which is reduced to a nine percent lead if Biden is included as an option. This is a giant advance from the last poll in July that showed Sanders with a 13% deficit.

It’s beginning to look like the public is in no mood for Bush/Clinton showdown, even if that remains the most plausible outcome.

More later…

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Martin Longman is the web editor for the Washington Monthly. See all his writing at