So we’ll be hearing stories all weekend about the whos and wherefores and exactly-whens of John Boehner’s announcement that he’ll give up his Speakership and his House seat by the end of October. But the broad outlines are reasonably clear (per, among others, Politico‘s Sherman and French):
* With the threat of a “no-confidence” vote against Boehner mooted, the House will be able to pass at least a temporary continuing appropriations resolution to keep the federal government running without some anti-Planned Parenthood rider.
* If necessary, Boehner will cut a deal with Democrats to pass this measure, neutralizing whatever Republican votes he loses to the House Freedom Caucus.
* Conservatives will have their Boehner trophy, and will focus on angling for influence over the vote for his replacement.
* Boehner will get the clock ticking early on the one-year lobbying ban he’ll have to wait out before becoming insanely rich.
Conservatives are already brandishing Boehner’s scalp. Marco Rubio was supremely lucky to be speaking at the Value Voters Summit when word of the Speaker’s resignation came out, and so he got to announce it to the assembled Christian Right activists as though it was some sort of joint accomplishment in which he shared. And Ted Cruz, who really did have something to do with the development, gloated openly the minute he could:
Cruz is now telling the audience they “terrify” Washington. Proof? Boehner’s resignation. #VVS15
— Sarah Posner (@sarahposner) September 25, 2015
We’ll have to wait to see if this whole thing was gamed out days or weeks ago, or just happened to come together via logic and serendipity.