So Canadians go to the polls today (in an interested staggered polling time system where polls will close on the Pacific Coast just an hour after the closings on the Atlantic coast), and the expectation is solidifying that Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper will be put out of office, albeit by a very narrow margin. The Globe and Mail‘s final projection is that Justin Trudeau’s Liberals have an 81% probability of winning the most parliamentary seats, with a 98% probability that together the Liberals and the left-bent New Democratic Party will win an outright majority. That doesn’t necessarily mean a left-center coalition government, BTW; more likely Trudeau would form a minority government that the NDP would support on key votes.

Much as I’m tempted, I will not live-blog the results tonight, but will have a thorough report tomorrow.

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Ed Kilgore is a political columnist for New York and managing editor at the Democratic Strategist website. He was a contributing writer at the Washington Monthly from January 2012 until November 2015, and was the principal contributor to the Political Animal blog.