The first step towards replacing absentee governor Bobby Jindal takes place tomorrow, when Louisiana holds it’s non-partisan “jungle primary” for state offices. National Journal‘s Karyn Bruggeman has a good summary of the race. But the fascinating development down the stretch has been the very real possibility that U.S. Senator David Vitter, the presumed favorite for this job throughout 2015, could get knocked right out of a runoff spot.

As Jeff Singer of Daily Kos notes today, one Louisiana pollster has consistently shown Vitter to have a shaky-at-best lead over True Conservative Republican rival Scott Angelle, who has combined attacks on Vitter’s character (as you may recall, Vitter has admitted partronizing prostitutes not that long ago) and his ideological reliability. Vitter could be saved by an anti-Vitter Republican vote being split between Angelle and Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne, and/or by Republican anxiety about the possibility of losing the runoff to moderate Democrat John Bel Edwards (no, before you ask, he’s not related to Edwin Edwards!), who is being generally conceded a runoff spot. It will be worth watching closely over the weekend.

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Ed Kilgore is a political columnist for New York and managing editor at the Democratic Strategist website. He was a contributing writer at the Washington Monthly from January 2012 until November 2015, and was the principal contributor to the Political Animal blog.