It’s Official: For the GOP, it’s Either Trump or a Contested Convention

Obviously Donald Trump had a good day in New York yesterday. Consequently, much of the discussion revolves around him this morning, including this take from Nate Silver.

It looks as though Trump will win every New York county except for Manhattan. More importantly, it looks as though he’ll eventually get something like 90 delegates of the 95 available in New York, winning all but one congressional district…and finishing above 50 percent in all but a handful of them. That’s right in line with the deliberately optimistic path-to-1,237 projections that we outlined for Trump last week, which had him finishing with 91 delegates in New York.

But here’s an interesting take on what happened.

Donald Trump is now the only Republican candidate with any chance of clinching the nomination before the convention.

Ted Cruz was mathematically eliminated Tuesday after Trump’s big win in the New York primary.

Trump won at least 89 of the 95 delegates at stake. John Kasich won at least three and Cruz was in danger of being shut out.

There aren’t enough delegates left in future contests for either Cruz or Kasich to reach the 1,237 delegates needed to win the GOP nomination. Their only hope is to block Trump and force a contested convention.

What this means is that the Republicans have three possibilities in a race that is likely to be against the country’s first female candidate for president:

1. Donald Trump, whose one ideology that he holds with “sincerity and practices with unwavering fervor” is misogyny.

2. Ted Cruz (via a contested convention), who creeped out most sentient beings last night by saying this: “America has always been best when she is lying down with her back on the mat.”

3. A so-called “white knight” candidate who emerges from the contested convention to save the party from these two guys, who will raise holy hell.

Far be it from me to prognosticate which of these options is more likely to actually happen. Just pass the popcorn.

Nancy LeTourneau

Nancy LeTourneau is a contributing writer for the Washington Monthly. Follow her on Twitter @Smartypants60 .