I’m going to be live blogging the Alabama senate race results as they come in. Polls don’t close for another two hours (7:00 pm central time), so I thought I’d give you a couple of things to chew on in the meantime.
First of all, here is a fascinating twitter thread from Al Giordano earlier today after he talked to a source in the Mobile County NAACP. Anyone who suggests that GOTV efforts in the African American community were lacking doesn’t know what they’re talking about. Here’s how Al summed up:
Exit polls have been released, but as always, should be taken with a grain of salt. However, here are some interesting tidbits:
CNN exit poll: electorate today 65% white, 30% black, 2% Latino
— Jonathan Hardison (@FOX6Hardison) December 12, 2017
The last statewide poll of Alabama shows Trump at +23% approval rating, but the EXIT polls show a tie in approval rating. This actually shows a very high Dem turnout.
— Benchmark Politics (@benchmarkpol) December 12, 2017
7:00 pm: As the polls close, David Jarman has an excellent county-by-county breakdown of what to look for as the results begin to come in.
7:25 pm: This could come in handy:
This is how Alabama voted in 2016.
— jordan (@JordanUhl) December 13, 2017
7:45 pm: Results are trickling in. From what we’ve seen so far, it could be a long night.
From the early results, what little extrapolation we can do, the numbers are good for Jones having a shot. These numbers indicate a razor thin race, so it very well could be a long night coming down to the trickle of votes at the end.
— Benchmark Politics (@benchmarkpol) December 13, 2017
7:50 pm: I just HAD to drop this one in:
It’s literally ONE PRECINCT so this is meaningless, but Etowah County (home of Gadsden Mall) is reporting 91-9 for Jones. #ALSen
— James Lambert (@hellofasandwich) December 13, 2017
8:24 pm: The predictors at the NYT have a pretty complicated model that I don’t even begin to understnad. But here’s what it looked like a few minutes ago.
Folks, our model thinks that the GOP may have a big turnout problem.
The three, white, GOP counties have fallen far short of our turnout estimates–including two under 75% of our estimates.
That’s what the big swing in our estimate is about.
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) December 13, 2017
9:05 pm: Another note about turnout:
Amazing: turnout is at 72%-77% of ’16 presidential race in heavily black counties, but just 55%-60% in rural white counties. Black voters punching above their weight tonight & giving Jones a chance. #ALSEN
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) December 13, 2017
9:25 pm: It’s official, Jones takes the lead.
Doug Jones now leads by Roy Moore by 817 votes
— Mark Murray (@mmurraypolitics) December 13, 2017
9:30 pm: Fox News, Politico and AP have called the race for Doug Jones!!!!!!!
— AP Politics (@AP_Politics) December 13, 2017
9:38 pm: With this, I’m outta here.
A Democrat has taken Jefferson Beauregard Sessions’ Senate seat.
Let that sink in, America.
— Michael Skolnik (@MichaelSkolnik) December 13, 2017