Why the Republican primary is effectively over
It’s always a little dangerous for a pundit to a declare a race over before it’s officially over, but I took my chances after Donald Trump’s Iowa landslide.
I’ll explain why, and why I might be wrong. But first, here’s what’s leading the Washington Monthly website:
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- Democratic Rights Are the Issue: Former host of MSNBC’s Hardball Chris Matthews counsels President Joe Biden on how to best explain the stakes in the 2024 election. Click here for the full story.
- Trump the Autocrat at the Counsel Table: Former federal prosecutor James D. Zirin on the dark ramifications of Trump’s recent legal argument. Click here for the full story.
- Forget New Hampshire. After Trump’s Iowa Landslide, It’s Over.: My argument that even a New Hampshire upset by Nikki Haley can’t derail Trump’s glide path to the GOP nomination. Click here for the full story.
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The value of punditry, in my view, is not the mere thrill of making accurate predictions, but to help us understand the political dynamics that affect our ability to govern.
That’s why I can’t pretend I see a path for Haley to the nomination, even though she retains a chance to win next week’s New Hampshire contest.
All the poll data, all the historical context, and all the anecdotal evidence from on-the-ground reporting points in the same direction: a clear majority of Republican voters believe in Donald Trump and what he represents.
New Hampshire’s primary electorate, with far more independents and far fewer evangelicals than other states, is too far removed from the GOP base to change the trajectory of the race.
After my analysis was published, I saw one counter-argument worth addressing:
We can’t draw big conclusions from a low-turnout caucus in one state.
Generally speaking, I agree.
As I mention in my article, Iowa’s heavily evangelical Republican caucusgoers have a poor track record of picking nominees. They are prone to extreme social conservatives like Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, and Ted Cruz, who struggled once the primaries moved to the rest of the country. Moreover, turnout last night, in raw numbers, was particularly low—lower than the Iowa caucuses in 2008, 2012, and 2016.
However, if Iowa this year may once again not be fully reflective of national Republican sentiment, then that may be because it’s support for Trump wasn’t big enough.
Trump scored 51 percent of the caucus, winning by 30 points. In national poll averages, Trump is clearing 60 percent and is leading by nearly 50 points.
So I have no reason to presume that Iowa Republicans are wildly out of step with the rest of their party.
Trump doesn’t have unanimous support in the GOP. And maybe the pockets of resistance are bad omens for his general election prospects. But it’s too soon to know if Trump’s weaknesses within the Republican Party base will be more severe than Biden’s weaknesses within the Democratic Party base come November.
But we can say that Trump remains the dominant figure in the GOP, as he has dramatically reconfigured the philosophical basis of his party.
New Hampshire is not going to change that reality, no matter how well Haley does.
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Best,
Bill
