Three days after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada flew to Mar-a-Lago for a dinner meeting with President-elect Donald Trump, anonymous sources leaked details to Fox News and painted a humiliating scene.
Trump threatened, “If Canada cannot fix the border issues and trade deficit, he will levy a 25% tariff on all Canadian goods on day one,” according to Fox’s sources, and “became more animated when it came to the U.S. trade deficit with Canada, which he estimated to be more than $100 billion.”
In response, Trudeau begged for mercy and then received mockery. “Trudeau told Trump he cannot levy the tariff because it would kill the Canadian economy completely. Trump replied–asking, so your country can’t survive unless it’s ripping off the U.S. to the tune of $100 billion? Trump then suggested to Trudeau that Canada become the 51st state, which caused the prime minister and others to laugh nervously.”
Trudeau’s public safety minister, Dominic LeBlanc, who was part of the small Canadian contingent at dinner, sought to reassure his nation by telling the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation that the 51st state comment was just Trump “telling jokes. The president was teasing us; it was, of course, in no way a serious comment. The fact that there’s a warm, cordial relationship between the two leaders and the president is able to joke like that, we think, is a positive thing.”
Canadians should not be reassured. Of course, it was a joke, but it was meant to belittle and demean.
The barb should not be viewed in isolation. Based on the accounts from the Fox News sources (likely in Trump’s orbit) and from LeBlanc to the CBC, I can only draw the conclusion that Trump punched down, and Trudeau sucked up.
When Trump blamed Canada for the scourge of fentanyl, Trudeau and his ministers proposed deploying additional helicopters and drones to the northern border. What he should have said was: Fentanyl seizures from America’s northern border account for only 0.08 percent of all seizures, so quit blaming Canada for America’s problems.
When Trump accused Canada of ripping off America with a $100 billion trade deficit, Trudeau should have said: First, it’s $64 billion, so get your numbers straight. Second, we’re not ripping you off. You’re buying Canadian oil, lumber, steel, aluminum, and maple syrup. And if you don’t want it anymore—because you want Americans to buy more expensive domestic products after you promised them lower prices—then good luck explaining that to your voters.
Trying to get Trump to back off by saying how it will hurt the Canadian economy is a strategic dead end. Why would Trump care about the Canadian economy? Moreover, why would Trump care about helping Trudeau? He has terrible poll numbers, and his ruling Liberal Party is projected to lose power to Canada’s Conservative Party in next year’s federal election—an outcome Trump would be perfectly happy to facilitate.
In fact, the Conservatives are gleefully calling out Trudeau’s limp negotiating strategy. “The prime minister went to Mar-a-Lago to kiss the ring, and returned with absolutely nothing,” said Brad Redekopp, a Conservative member of Parliament. The Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, said: “While I’m a critic of Mr. Trudeau’s, I did feel badly that he went in with such a position of weakness. Normally, when a prime minister goes to the United States to meet a president, they’re looking to make gains. What gains did we hear from Mr. Trudeau? None. He’s just trying to limit losses.” These are self-serving political attacks, of course, but they are potent because they ring true.
Trudeau is not obligated to play into the Conservative narrative. As I argued last week, Trump does not have leverage in this unprovoked tariff fight he instigated. He sold the American public a cognitively dissonant case for lower prices and higher tariffs, and forcing the issue will only expose the contradiction.
Beyond navigating the immediate tariff issue, standing up to Trump and containing his most destructive impulses would serve Canada’s long-term interests, not to mention those of America and the rest of the world. Trudeau is already in a huge political hole at home. Why not forcefully defend Canada from Trump’s bullying to resurrect his own reputation? Bowing to Trump is only giving his opponents more fodder.
To be fair, Trudeau could still shift gears. Kristen Hillman, Canada’s ambassador to the United States, said on CNN this week that retaliatory tariffs are being prepared if Trump strikes first. Recalling what Canada did in 2018, the last time Trump provoked a trade skirmish, Hillman said, “With the steel and aluminum tariffs, we tried to ensure that we tailor them in a way that would cause minimum impact on Canadians but would be motivating down here in the United States.”
But she still signaled great reluctance: “We really hope that we don’t have to get to that because it’s not good for Canada, it’s not good for the U.S., and it’s not good for this huge relationship that has [been] growing.”
The soft language of mutual benefit, while rational, doesn’t strike me as language that would resonate with the simple-minded and selfish Trump, who relishes humiliating others. Trudeau should get out of his submissive posture and recognize that he is in a great position to humiliate Trump—not just for his sake but for ours.
