PICKING A WINNER….Tom Schaller says that a “bellwether state” is one that always votes for the winner in a presidential election. By this definition, Missouri, which has picked the winner in the past 11 straight elections, is the bellwether-iest state of them all.

Likewise, there have been six counties with a perfect record since 1960 ? but only one of them is in Missouri. Therefore, Tom crowns Lincoln, MO, as the bellwether-iest county in the nation. “Somebody ought to commission a focus group in Lincoln to see how they feel about Bush and Kerry,” he says.

Good idea. Are you listening, assignment desks?

Independent since 1969.

The Washington Monthly is nonprofit and reader-supported. Your tax-deductible gift pays for the reporting you just read.