Joshua Tucker

The New York Times reports the following proposal is on the table in negotiations over raising additional tax revenue so that Republicans can say they have not allowed marginal tax rates to rise: One possible change would tax the entire salary earned by those making more than a certain level — $400,000 or so — […]

As Hilary Clinton arrives in Israel to attempt to negotiate a cease fire in the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hammas, it is worth noting that there is a sub-field of political science that focuses on the determinants and effectiveness of these kinds of mediation effects. To give just a few examples, Emory University political […]

… it would be a long night (both literally and figuratively) for Romney. From the a BBC World Service poll conducted largely in July and August: [Cross-posted at The Monkey Cage]

As a follow-up to a recent piece regarding the Rothschild and Wolfers research suggesting the predictive value of aggregating voters’ beliefs about the likely winner of the election, Pew just recently released its final set of numbers in this regard.  The following table from the report shows the most recent numbers compared with results from earlier in […]

Over the past few weeks, I have had the enjoyable opportunity to lecture on the subject of the US Electoral College to a variety of different audiences in Poland and Italy. My lectures almost inevitably include some snarky side-comments about how incredible it is that the US continues to use this extremely convoluted system of […]

I wrote a piece recently about the link between the cost of an “Obama wins” futures contract on Intrade and Nate Silver’s 538 blog’s probability of an Obama victory. At the time, the two had converged almost perfectly. Since then, however, a gap has opened up between the two: Silver’s model now gives Obama a […]

I’m intrigued by the recent convergence between Nate Silver’s 2012 US Presidential Election forecast (which incorporates most of the publicly available polling data) and the futures contracts being sold on an Obama victory at Intrade. Here’s Nate’s most up to the minute forecast (Obama in blue): And here’s the current cost of a contract that […]

The National Journal Hotline on Call blog posted this great graphic yesterday: First thing that surprised me was that Bud drinkers are more likely to be Democrats, and Samuel Adams drinkers Republican. But what ended up striking me as most interesting was the strong link between drinking light beer and being a Republican. Of the […]

By now anyone who follows NFL football knows that the replacement referees – likely through little fault of their own – have become an unmitigated disaster for the game.  We also know the players are not going to join the referees by striking, but that the players are furious about the ongoing lockout. As a […]

After an extended break for his best word tournament, we once again bring you cartoonist Ted McCagg: [Cross-posted at The Monkey Cage]