* I had originally planned to be done talking about the Republican tax cuts today. But then I saw this from Ivanka Trump:
“Small businesses will have the lowest taxes since 1931” … Ivanka Trump discusses impact of tax reform pic.twitter.com/NVuVBmeiU5
— FOX & friends (@foxandfriends) December 18, 2017
That’s the shot, here’s the chaser:
As you’ll recall, 1931 was a great year for small businesses. https://t.co/9dMER3FMwu
— Maggie Serota (@maggieserota) December 20, 2017
I have no words. There is simply no excuse for this kind of ignorance.
* Following up on what I wrote this morning about data pointing to a blue wave in the 2018 midterms, the results of this poll signify that something historic is building.
* David Shor provides more historical data.
Republicans are seeing the worst live-interview generic ballot polling of any incumbent party since literally Watergate. pic.twitter.com/TbT8QMnnxY
— (((David Shor))) (@davidshor) December 20, 2017
* Harry Enten weighs in.
I have studied the generic ballot more than perhaps any other ballot measure. While there are competing forces (a reversion to the mean vs. White House party losing ground), chances are the avg. will look similar next Nov. to now. Very, very, very bad news for GOP.
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) December 20, 2017
* In case you assume Republicans will dig their way out of that hole in the coming months, consider this:
So, Republicans have passed a wildly unpopular tax plan. Special elections show a huge swing against them in the polls. But hey, they have a plan to turn public opinion around next year: cut Social Security and Medicare!
— Paul Krugman (@paulkrugman) December 20, 2017
* To bolster this data, Public Policy Polling provided a fascinating twitter thread. Here’s how it starts:
The generic ballot polling certainly looks great for Democrats, but how is that playing out at the district level? We’ve polled 36 GOP held Congressional districts since October. Here’s what we’ve found…
— PublicPolicyPolling (@ppppolls) December 20, 2017
They go on to identify 25 races in Republican House districts where the incumbent is losing to either a generic Democrat or an identified opponent and summarize with this:
So that’s 25 GOP held districts we’ve polled where the client chose to release the poll and a Democrat’s been ahead. And of course we haven’t polled everywhere. 11 other GOP districts we’ve polled it’s close
— PublicPolicyPolling (@ppppolls) December 20, 2017
Their conclusion: “So the generic ballot polling on a national level is good for Democrats. And so is all of the district specific polling we’re doing.”
* Finally, I’d like to once again remind you that we’re in the midst of our holiday fundraising drive here at Washington Monthly. We could really use your help to keep this organization going over the next year. So if you haven’t already, please consider making a donation of $10, $20, $30, $50, $100, $1000—knowing that your contribution will be matched, dollar for dollar.
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