THE DEMOCRATIC HORSE RACE….Dan Drezner says that if you’re handicapping the Democratic presidential field, you should pay attention to which candidates get support from the heavyweight foreign policy gurus:
Why these people? Because foreign policy analysts might care about a candidate’s philosophy of governance, but they care about being Secretary of State more. Therefore, unless their foreign policy views are sharply in contrast with the candidate’s ideology (no pro-war analysts would work for Howard Dean, for example), these people will pick the candidate most likely to win.
Now this begs the question of whether these folks have a better record of picking winners than other kinds of advisors ? not to mention the unspoken assumption that domestic advisors aren’t equally interested in cabinet posts ? but it’s an interesting take on things nonetheless. Click here if you want to see the list of heavyweights he thinks we should keep an eye on.
Personally, I’ve always had a hard time getting into the whole handicapping thing this early. I’m not activist enough to work on campaigns, a lot can happen in a year, and California has such a late primary that I can’t remember the last time my vote actually meant anything. However, for those who do like this kind of thing, it’s becoming more interesting all the time as Bush’s poll numbers sink lower and lower and lower….