HOUSING BUBBLE….Megan McArdle says this

HOUSING BUBBLE….Megan McArdle says this is not a good time to buy a house. I agree.

Every financial bubble is accompanied by a legion of commentators claiming that this time is different ? and trotting out some plausible sounding theories about why there’s been some fundamental change in the way the world works that will sustain these high prices forever. But it ain’t so.

We’re in a housing bubble right now, and it’s going to burst within the next year or two, maybe sooner. Save your money and buy then.

UPDATE: Always pay attention to historical fundamentals. Always. Every once in a while a genius comes along like Michael Milken who notices that some long-held financial truth isn’t quite right and who’s able to clean up for a while by exploiting this insight. (In his case it was the average return on non-investment grade bonds, which was higher than it should have been given the historical risk of default.) But you’re not Michael Milken. Hell, even the rocket scientists at LTCM turned out not to be Michael Milken.

Us ordinary folks should just look at garden variety fundamentals like PE ratios and the like and act accordingly. That’s my financial advice for the day.

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