“MISTAKEN ESTIMATES”….Speaking of Kenneth Pollack….

Pollack has an article about Persian Gulf security in the current issue of Foreign Affairs and I note with amusement the following paragraph:

As for Iran, according to the latest estimates of U.S. intelligence and even of the International Atomic Energy Agency, its nuclear program has gone into overdrive and unless stopped — from inside or outside — is likely to produce one or more nuclear weapons within five years. (Of course, the mistaken estimates of Iraq’s nuclear program over the last 20 years reinforce the uncertainty underlying all such assessments.)

Yes indeedy.

UPDATE: This has been corrected based on an email from Foreign Affairs. The online version ? from which I originally copied the excerpt ? says “within a decade.” The print version, which is correct, says “within five years.” (The online version has since been corrected.)

This is actually kind of ironic since I first read it in the print edition but cut and pasted the text from the online edition. I didn’t even notice that they were different.

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