Poll Update

POLL UPDATE….Recent Time and Newsweek polls showed George Bush way ahead of John Kerry, but today there was some more cheerful news for Kerry.

First, Josh Marshall says that he’s talked to sources inside each campaign, and both of them say their internal polling had Bush ahead by only 4 points as of Friday.

Second, via Mark Kleiman, the latest Rasmussen robo-poll shows Bush only a point ahead of Kerry. Since Rasmussen reports a 3-day moving average, that means Sunday’s polling probably had Kerry slightly ahead.

All the usual caveats apply to these figures, but overall it looks as if the race is most likely still about where it was before either convention, with Bush narrowly ahead in the electoral college race. In other words, it’s still a tossup and it’s still going to be decided in the next few weeks.