GENERIC POLLS….Chris Cillizza reports that the average Democratic lead in generic congressional polls (“If the congressional election were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate in your district or the Republican candidate?”) has increased from 13.4 percentage points to 14.8 percentage points.
So: is a landslide in the works? It’s worth remembering that Democrats held a lead of about ten percentage points in generic polls in June 2004 and ended up losing seats in November. So you can probably figure that Dems will lose about nine or ten points of their advantage by election day.
Of course, it’s not June, it’s August. And there’s no presidential election to amp up turnout, blanket the airwaves with ads, and provide helpful coattails in marginal races. It’s just the opposite this year. What’s more, even if the Dems lose ten points of their lead and end up with an advantage of four or five points on election day, they’ll probably pick up 20 seats or so. Cross your fingers.