EXODUS….It’s wise for Democrats not to get too giddy over every new poll that comes out, but Gallup’s latest is definitely one of the most remarkable we’ve seen in a while. In the past few elections, one of the strongest predictors among white voters of party preference has been church attendance: regular churchgoes vote overwhelmingly for Republicans while white non-attendees (and blacks) vote for Democrats.
But according to a Gallup poll released on Thursday, that advantage has dried up completely this year: regular churchgoers are now split evenly, with 47% planning to vote Republican and 47% planning to vote Democratic. As recently as last month Republicans still held a 20-point lead among frequent white churchgoers.
In the end, I imagine that a majority of these people will hold their noses and vote for Republicans after all. But if even 5% of them stay home and another 5% switch to the Democrats, it’s going to have a huge impact. David Kuo’s new book ought to help that along nicely.