THE SUNNI-SHIA WAR….Over at Marc Lynch’s site, Gregory Gause has a guest post analyzing the likelihood of a genuine Sunni-Shia confrontation in the Middle East. Long story short, he believes that (a) the U.S. and its Mideastern allies are concerned about Iran, not Shia, but (b) governments in Sunni-dominated countries find it easier to whip up anti-Shia sentiment than anti-Iran sentiment, so that’s the tack they’re taking. Bottom line: the “Shia threat” is overblown and has probably peaked anyway, and the anti-Iran alliance is based mostly on balance-of-power considerations and will be difficult to maintain.

Read the whole thing for more. Marc says he’ll respond later.

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