REGIONAL PEACE SUMMIT PREDICTION….Daniel Drezner, after reading the news that interest in restarting the Middle East peace process has increased, makes a prediction:
If this gains any momentum at all, I predict there will be an attack in Israel or the occupied territories. The attack will be designed to inflame the Israeli political establishment or wreck the Palestinian coalition govenment. There are simply too many armed groups in the region with a vested interest in maintaining the festering status quo.
It looks to me like Dan is trying to get some bonus oracle points for predicting that the sun will rise in the east tomorrow. He’s right, of course, and this is what makes the whole kabuki dance so frustrating: everybody knows this is exactly how it will play out, but nobody is willing to acknowledge it up front and agree to keep forging ahead even when the extremists on the other side do something inflammatory. Unfortunately, the extremists know this perfectly well.