Poll Madness

POLL MADNESS….The national polls conducted in the past couple of days are all remarkably consistent on the Democratic side, showing Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama by an average of 47%-39%. Here are the individual numbers:

  • Fox: 47-37

  • Gallup: 48-41

  • Rasmussen: 49-38

  • Pew: 46-38

  • ABC: 47-43

Hillary’s 8-point lead has been steady for several weeks now. If it holds up, and if undecided voters break evenly, and if delegates get split in about the same proportion as the vote, this means that Hillary will win about 1,127 delegates to Obama’s 937. If Obama makes a late surge, it’ll be closer. In other words, there’s virtually no chance that Super Tuesday will decide the Democratic race. So for all of you who are already sick and tired of the primaries, you better buck up. The real race is just getting started.

UPDATE: Gallup has just released its latest tracking numbers and now has Clinton leading by only two points, 46-44. Is this a fluke, or an Obama surge? Might as well wait until Tuesday to find out.

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