Betting on Hillary Obama

BETTING ON HILLARY OBAMA….Obama supporter Mark Kleiman sent me an email this morning about my Intrade post from a week ago. At that time, Intrade bettors thought Hillary Clinton was more electable than Obama: they gave her a 66% chance of winning the presidency if she were nominated, vs. 47% for Obama.

So what do they think now? Answer: HRC has lost her edge among the punters. They give Hillary a 64% chance of winning if she’s nominated and Obama a 69% chance. Click on last week’s post for caveats, warnings, and methodology.

I have no idea what this means, if anything. But whatever concerns the Intrade crowd had about Obama’s electability has apparently been assuaged. They’re now betting — accurately, I think — that either candidate is highly likely to beat John McCain in November.

Washington Monthly - Donate today and your gift will be doubled!

Support Nonprofit Journalism

If you enjoyed this article, consider making a donation to help us produce more like it. The Washington Monthly was founded in 1969 to tell the stories of how government really works—and how to make it work better. Fifty years later, the need for incisive analysis and new, progressive policy ideas is clearer than ever. As a nonprofit, we rely on support from readers like you.

Yes, I’ll make a donation