HILLARY OBAMA….Obama supporter Mark Kleiman sent me an email this morning about my Intrade post from a week ago. At that time, Intrade bettors thought Hillary Clinton was more electable than Obama: they gave her a 66% chance of winning the presidency if she were nominated, vs. 47% for Obama.
So what do they think now? Answer: HRC has lost her edge among the punters. They give Hillary a 64% chance of winning if she’s nominated and Obama a 69% chance. Click on last week’s post for caveats, warnings, and methodology.
I have no idea what this means, if anything. But whatever concerns the Intrade crowd had about Obama’s electability has apparently been assuaged. They’re now betting — accurately, I think — that either candidate is highly likely to beat John McCain in November.