WHAT’S THE STORY MORNING GLORY…. It’s 10 a.m. (ET) on Sunday; do you know where your health care reform bill is?

No one can say with any real certainty what’s going to happen today. House Democratic Caucus Chairman John Larson (D-Conn.) told ABC, “We have the votes. We are going to make history today.” But Larson has consistently been more optimistic than arguably anyone, anywhere, so his boast should probably be taken with a grain of salt.

Other key Democratic leaders were far more circumspect. House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) told NBC, “We’re going to have 216 votes,” which obviously means the 216 are not yet there. Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.) told Fox News, “We don’t have a hard 216 right now,” and added that the count “is in flux.”

A breakthrough with Rep. Bart Stupak’s (D-Mich.) bloc would almost certainly secure passage, but as of this morning, progress remains elusive.

Rep. Bart Stupak (D-MI) just told MSNBC he controls eight votes on the health care reform bill, including his own. According to Stupak, the eight are in discussions with the White House about a possible executive order from President Obama that would affirm the Hyde amendment after the bill passes in the House.

Stupak added, “We’re close but we’re not there yet.” He’s made similar comments before, so there’s no way to say for sure whether a resolution is likely or not.

In other developments:

* Rep. Glenn Nye (D-Va.) voted against reform in November, but was believed to be a possible switcher. Last night, he disappointed everyone by announcing he would oppose the bill today.

* In a bizarre development, Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D-Calif.), a Blue Dog who voted for reform in November, blew off work altogether yesterday and went to Florida to do some fundraising. Despite her previous support, Sanchez may or may not vote today, and if she does, the leadership now expects her to switch from “yes” to “no.”

* Rep. Michael Capuano (D-Mass.) had expressed reservations about the final bill, but he announced last night that he will support the legislation, just he did in November.

Steve Benen

Follow Steve on Twitter @stevebenen. Steve Benen is a producer at MSNBC's The Rachel Maddow Show. He was the principal contributor to the Washington Monthly's Political Animal blog from August 2008 until January 2012.