Political Scientist Josh Putnam, who blogs at Frontloading Headquarters and who may know more about delegate selection than anyone, was interviewed on Fresh Air. Here’s one quote from him:
The assumption going into this is that the number of delegates moving forward is going to be close to proportional to the number of votes in the straw poll vote. But there’s nothing in most of these state party rules that requires that.
That may help Ron Paul:
That’s a loophole in the process, he says, that Paul’s supporters are using strategically.
They will stick around and be very regimented in making sure that their supporters gobble up as many of those delegate slots to the next round of this process [as they can]. And that very greatly increases their chances of pushing folks through to the national convention,” he says. “The straw poll is only for show, essentially.”
The interview is here.
[Cross-posted at The Monkey Cage]