Reihan Salam:

Is it obvious that HRC would crush Bloomberg in a D primary? I don’t think so.

Of course, that assume that Bloomberg looks good in the long run as far as Sandy is concerned, which is hardly a sure thing. But even granting that: No way. No way! This particular Iron Law of Politics is strong: New York City Mayor is a dead-end job.

Rudy Giuliani tried. Ed Koch tried (for governor). John Lindsay tried. It just doesn’t work. The kinds of friends — and the kinds of enemies — you have to make to be a successful, or even plausibly successful, Mayor of New York City just don’t translate well beyond the city.

And yup, part of that is party. It’s impossible to be mayor in NYC as a regular Republican, and pretty difficult to be one as a regular Democrat. But once you leave NYC, you have a nation of regular Republicans and regular Democrats, and they aren’t going to tolerate it.

(Yes, I know most of you aren’t, but I’m totally ready to get started on Dem WH ’16 and, if the polls are correct, GOP WH ’16. I’m not the only one — you can be sure that Democratic candidates have already started, and if Republicans haven’t they will just as soon as (and if) the last state puts Barack Obama over the top on Tuesday night. But, yeah, I’m ready for 2012 to be over, but presidential nomination politics? Never gets old).

[Cross-posted at A plain blog about politics]

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Jonathan Bernstein is a political scientist who writes about American politics, especially the presidency, Congress, parties, and elections.